Displacing jobs is a good thing, it means opportunity
Yesterday, the article The Real Reason America Doesn’t Have Enough Truck Drivers was shared in my business fellowship under the Random category. I read it, then I kept thinking about it. The article explained how the Great Truck Driver Shortage is a myth. I know, it's shocking to hear business insiders cry about a labor shortage within their industry and act like it is not their self-created problem. Employment is a relationship. I learned from the article that there is no shortage of truck drivers, there’s a shortage of people willing to keep working as truck drivers.
“The average trucking company has a turnover rate of roughly 95%, meaning that it must replace nearly all of its workforce in the course of a year. More recruits boost the supply of drivers, which keeps a cap on wages.
As the trucking association itself noted, more than 10 million Americans held commercial driver’s licenses in 2019. That was nearly triple the 3.7 million trucks that required a driver holding that certification.“
The article really hit home how terrible the job of being a truck driver is. It seemed like a boring and thankless job before, little did I know how bad it truly is. The companies only have to pay high enough wages to attract new drivers into the churn, not keep existing drivers. They have shorter and lonelier lives, and are constantly-stressed. The over-the-road driver has a bad job that consumes their lifestyle, the pay isn’t great to justify its toll, which explains why so leave it. It’s a job that kills you, slowly if not quickly. Agreeing to be employed as a truck driver is agreeing to shorten your life, that is on the job training.
“What he knows viscerally is borne out by statistics. A truck driver is 10 times more likely to be killed on the job than the average American worker, according to federal data.
Every truck stop is like a shrine seeking to ward off the demons of fatigue. Refrigerated display cabinets are stocked with supercaffeinated energy drinks whose brand names attest to the trading of long-term health for a short-term jolt: Red Bull. Java Monster. Bang.
“It’s a deal with the devil,” said Graves, who sticks with coffee.“
My immediate thought after reading the article was that truck driving should be automated. Why does the movement of stuff need human intervention? Truck driving is a horrible job that no one should have to do, or if they choose to do it then they should be well compensated for sacrificing their life. Automation has many benefits and would make the roads safer, and it has the benefit of stopping people from having to suffer in jobs that are actively killing them. I researched truck driving automation and came across this 60 Minutes article from 2021, Automated trucking, a technical milestone that could disrupt hundreds of thousands of jobs, hits the road. Major companies are already deep researching and developing, there’s at least one company that already has automated trucks on the road.
“Right now there's a high-stakes, high-speed race pitting the usual suspects - Google and Tesla and other global tech firms - against start-ups smelling opportunity. The driverless-semi will convulse the trucking sector and the two million American drivers who turn a key and maneuver their big rig every day. And the winners of this derby, they may be poised to make untold billions; they'll change the U.S. transportation grid; and they will emerge as the new kings of the road.“
The “untold billions” perked my ears up, but it’s clear that I’ve missed out unless I want just want to be a shareholder. I thought it wouldn’t be a bad idea to buy some stock because the need is there, and there will be revenue in shipping because people aren’t going to stop buying more stuff from all over the world and needing it shipped to their home anytime soon.
I kept thinking about the drivers from the CBS article with their excuses against automated truck driving. These people were arguing for the need for their livelihood, of course, they would say that their jobs are necessary. It’s what they are comfortable doing and its their source of income. They are scared of the future. The alternative is not having a job or likely having a lower-paying job. I could see these drivers, their union if they are lucky enough to be in one, and the existing trucking companies that employ these drivers all fighting and lobbying the government to stop the automated truck industry. They are middlemen whose business is to take their cut from moving stuff from one place to another place, which all gets paid for by the stuff’s end-buyer. This prevents lower prices from coming to us sooner, and it certainly keeps people working poor quality of life jobs.
Eliminating the role of a truck driver isn’t the problem, the technology and machinations are already in place to do that. It is just a matter of time. The real problem is the elimination of employment for 3 million people. Of the 10 million person market of licensed truck drivers, 7 million have the skill and knowledge of moving heavy machinery but were smart enough to run away from the thankless job, while the other 3 million I hope lose their jobs. Deliveries are quicker with automation, breaks are needed only to fill up for gas. The greater efficiency and cutting out of middlemen would lead to lower end-buyer prices– that is progress.
I am a day late and a dollar short with automated truck driving. The real opportunity isn’t found in automating the trucking industry anymore, that entry point has passed me. It’s already being done and the huge companies and investments already involved make it an unattractive market for me to want to enter. I welcome automating truck driving. There will be less litter on the highways. There will be fewer semi-trucks wasting gasoline and loudly idling, parked on the side of highways due to government-mandated breaks. Highways would be a more beautiful experience to drive on and see America. The demand exists for automated trucking because lower prices are always wanted by the consumer. So what is the hold-up? The money is being poured in to replace truck drivers but that’s going to take time, bickering, and lobbying for the government to change laws. I don’t see many politicians being proud to help citizens lose their jobs, it also means less revenue for the government in taxes The status quo for truck drivers will eventually change but it will be painful, there’s too much money for it not to happen.
Automated truck driving isn’t going to make me rich, or can it? I can’t get rich with automated driving, but maybe I can get rich from the knowledge that automated truck driving is inevitable. Perhaps I can benefit from this new knowledge about how bad of a job over-the-road truck driving is.
I did the opposite of what I was taught in my MBA marketing class but followed the lesson from my Fostering Creative Thinking class: shift perspective. I didn’t think of attracting customers but attracting employees. Truck drivers need to find new employment, unemployment one of the greatest scourges on Earth, isn’t a solution. I thought of these truck drivers as my market for potential employees. What business could employ these people that are skilled at driving heavy machinery and/or willing to work long hours and spend long periods away from home? I put their employment as my end goal, and then I thought backward from there. Finding a customer market is a good reason to start a business, but finding a purpose to employ might just be a better reason to start a business.
My first thought was to have them drive something else, like a food delivery driver or taxi driver. But those are the same companies that are automating the truck driving industry and will eliminate those jobs too. I have a robot delivering pizzas in my neighborhood. A delivery driver is a temporary solution, It would mean less pay for the driver, so they probably wouldn’t go for that. Anyway, does the planet really need to employ more vehicles on the roads?
Ignoring the possibility of a job for everyone, I just wanted to focus on finding new employment in order to displace truck drivers. These truck drivers are skilled and knowledgeable at driving heavy machinery. They have, or had the willingness, to sacrifice some of their freedoms to go on long solo journeys. They are working 60-70 hours per week. They know the importance of getting jobs done. These are admirable people. I’m thinking they could be pilots? Now that I’ve thought of the occupation, my next quest is to find a need for pilots. Besides starting a new airline, I could open a pilot training academy. I had found a new business path to explore: discover, or create, a market that needs pilots. Or I can scrap the pilot idea and go back to the drawing board and find a different occupation that truck drivers’ skills can transfer to. I could create an agency that trains and connects these skilled individuals with other employers, much like coding bootcamps do. Interviewing former truck drivers would be a good place to find out what the most transferable skills from truck driving are. I could approach these major companies that are investing in automation to invest in my solution, they have the need to remove these truck drivers’ feelings out of their way.
But what if the truck drivers were the ones to leave first?
If these people could find better jobs, then there would hardly be any opposition to eliminating the employment of truck drivers. And the lower prices that come to consumers sooner is progress. Progress is where real profits are found. Old Money sticks with the status quo and is okay with employing people in terrible jobs because that’s how it’s been done before, and are getting their regular dividend checks. Old Money doesn't need to think entrepreneurially, they are already getting their cut from the way things are.
I see that the opportunity existing now is in hastening the displacement of truck drivers before automation pushes them out. The scenario of automated trucking taking 10 years or however long before becoming commonplace will eventually create a win for businesses, customers, but a loss for the drivers. I see profit being found in finding a WIN + WIN + WIN scenario, by discovering a solution that makes truck drivers happy to give up these horrible jobs.
Progress will always win, eventually. Money is made by those that can make progress happen quicker. Finding better-paying employment for these skilled and hardworking humans before technology makes their profession obsolete is a ripe opportunity for an entrepreneur. I will summarize and end my first blog post with a quote from the Creative Destroyer himself, economist Joseph A. Schumpeter, “Profit is the payment you get when you take advantage of change.”